Oz-Energy-Analysis.ORG -- Liturature worth talking about

Work that looks ahead more than a few years, and depends on technologies that are not currently proven, and at least not yet demonstrated for large scale deployment; we call these Crystal Ball Gazing (CBG) papers. This is not to diminish the value of such work, but rather to remind ourselves of what these papers represent. We have selected 5 CBG papers for initial consideration, and these are listed below, along with preliminary notes.

If you are familiar with any of these papers, or have the inclination to chose and examine one, we will appreciate your input. Critiques of other relevant CBG papers are also most welcome.

Saddler, H., M. Diesendorf, et al. (2007).
Clean energy scenarios for Australia.
Energy Policy 35(2): 1245-1256, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2006.03.013

This paper focuses on technology mixes rather than system integration. 2040 scenarios are presented, providing emission reductions through wind, increased energy efficiency, solar hot water, natural gas and biofuels. The values are not established quantitatively and no clear transparent costing analysis is shown.

Antoine, B., K. Goran, et al. (2008).
Energy scenarios for Malta.
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 33(16): 4235-4246, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2008.06.010

The paper presents three different case studies for Malta: business as usual, low level integration of renewable energy, and utilising hydrogen as an energy carrier for transport. The feasibility of hydrogen storage combined with photovoltaic and wind energy in a broad scale system analysis is assessed. It uses the model H2RES, but is light on detail and heavy on unstated assumptions. There are some crude cost data projections with backup cost and system reliability not transparently modeled.

Jacobson, M. Z. (2009).
Review of solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security.
Energy & Environmental Science 2(2): 148-173, http://www.rsc.org/Publishing/Journals/EE/article.asp?doi=b809990c

A review of different technologies and theoretical resources with some links to transport fuel replacement. It contains some CO2e/EREOI (energy returned on energy invsted) values that are inconsistent with other literature. It has a subjective rank of different technologies based on the Author's quite arbitrary criteria. There is some discussion surrounding intermittency, yet this section is laden with assumptions. The paper does not conduct a systems analysis of reliability. Soap-box science.

Giatrakos, G. P., T. D. Tsoutsos, et al. (2009).
Sustainable energy planning based on a stand-alone hybrid renewable energy/hydrogen power system: Application in Karpathos island Greece.
Renewable Energy 34(12): 2562-2570, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2009.05.019

A systems analysis for a small Greek island. A useful study, but has some important weaknesses, such as lack of serious costing, and ignoring minimum production periods that will impact heavily on reliability and storage requirements. The paper relies on the HOMER model that evaluates off grid and grid connected power system design in terms of energy and finance.

Fthenakis, V., Mason J. E., et al. (2009)
The technical, geographical, and economic feasibility for solar energy to supply the energy needs of the US.
Energy Policy 37(2): 387-399, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.08.011

A real CBG exercise. Scenarios for 2050 and 2100 are considered, by combining solar PV/CSP (concentrated solar power) with CAES (compressed air energy storage). Good points include: it begins to consider the issues around minimum generating periods, and includes some unit cost implications. On the down side, there are rather dubious forward projections of scale up capacity, backed by heroic and poorly identified assumptions, and no overall cost estimates for an operating whole-of-grid system. There is no real systems approach - it is more an assembly of parts.

Name:*
Email:*
Website:
Subject:*
What is the longhand for 'Oz'? :*

LITERATURE - Crystal Ball Gazing Papers

Post Comment: